萬眾期待，中國政府終於在今個星期加息四分一厘，我個人認為這絕對是一個好現象。
仲記得幾年前東尼曾經講過，一般情況下，加息和通脹都是好事，這些都是經濟良好才會出現的現象，失控才是壞事，兩者都比它們的相反好得多。簡單咁講，用加息去控制增長絕對比用減息去刺激經濟好(現時美國和日本既情況更慘，超低息只造就了利差交易和提高海外資產價格，對本土經濟幫助極小)。
利息提高，求安心既人可以增加存款，有勇氣在好景時發圍的，銀行亦有足夠的資本放貸。
投資角度，人民幣和或賺取人民幣的公司一早就已經需要在組合之內。人民幣升值彷彿是近年的必然發展，唯一和最大的問題在於好難估得到中國政府既行動。
依靠利息收入既保險股必定受惠，同樣利好既有避過不平行加息既銀行股，能否籍此增加息差，便要看個別銀行的存貨組合。將來既人民幣債券需要提高息率去增加吸引力，已經推出既必定會受到價格下跌的壓力。
又睇完一本伊坂幸太郎既書，難怪獎門人話我鍾意伊坂幸太郎多過村上春樹，近呢一年真係密集式咁睇伊坂幸太郎既書。今次睇既《孩子們》由五個部份組成，故事主要集中在一個叫陣內的人和他身邊的朋友由讀書時期至工作後的情況，五個部份就是以他四位朋友為第一身去講故事。陣內是一名怪人，總是自把自為地行事，有獨特的價值觀。
伊坂幸太郎的作品，一如以往，充滿正能量，當中談到創造奇蹟的部份特別有意思。作者以他最能手的多重故事架構去製造一個又一個在陣內身上的奇蹟，在閱讀時確是感受到那股柔柔的能量和希望。
相對伊坂幸太郎的其他作品，這書的複雜性較低，卻加入了一些破案的情節，這可算是我目前看過他最接近偵探小說的作品了（我一直都唔明白點解他會被歸類為偵探小說作家）。
睇完呢本書，立即開始睇《1Q84 BOOK 3》，村上春樹，我無變心架。
I made two transactions on the stock market today. The first deal is sold China Merchants Bank at $23. The bank’s EPS in 2010 1H is 0.65 RMB and its book value is 5.79 RMB. By layman prediction, the earning reminds the same in 2H (actually it should be lower due to lower interest margin and tighten loan requirement). The 2010 estimated EPS is 1.3 RMB. The dealing price equals to 15X PE and 3.4X PB.
China Merchants Bank still is my favorite stock (so I still keep some). The selling today is simply because I need cash and the price is good at this moment. As the 6th biggest bank in China and the biggest non-government owned bank in China, it knows the way to survive and always can catch the chance to increase earning. Don’t forget it is still the so-called best service bank in China.
The second transaction is sold China Mobile at $83. I lose 13% from this deal. My first cut loses transaction. I had analyzed this company early this year. I still hoped I can get back my costs at that time. But my hope hasn’t come true at these ten months. The company itself is OK and it has a good dividend. But under the government unbalance policy, it only “allowed” to have a very slow profit growth. And after many years of discussion, it still failed to import i-phone while its competitor already earned a lot from it. Also, it has too much cash. I feel uncomfortable when I knew it developed its own phone and involved in banking business. They are just simply not their business. BTW, recently it had some progress for i-phone 4. This news may be the reason gives me a chance to sell it.
The company 2009 EPS is 5.67 RMB with a 2.3% growth than 2008. Very aggressive and random prediction, it makes a 10% growth in 2010, i.e., 6.24 RMB. The dealing price means 11.4X PE.
So, I had sold the best two stocks (China Life and China Mobile) suggested by Master Lam in his previous book.
On the same day, I changed my Canada dollar to HKD.
